Example

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
HORSE RACING TIPPING SERVICE


An overlay betting approach. 
Nothing new, just smart.

horse-racing-tips.com - horse racing tips, form guide and market estimates for Australian horse racing.


Example

For this example, we will assume you will be following the DOUBLE or 2.0x overlay (refer to Suggested Strategies for further detail). This example race is scheduled to jump in 5 hours (refer Table 2 below), however, this task would normally be carried out just before jump time (ie 1-2 minutes) or taken as fixed odds bet if available or taken with a generous bookie. 

Refer to Table 1 below which details the Horse-Racing-Tips.com market prices and Table 2 which indicates the actual TAB tote for the race well before jump time. The TAB tote should be accessed via the NSW TAB site www.racetab.com.au, but whilst we can, we offer this link via the "Live WP Odds Link". This link only works for the day of the race only. 

If you are following the TOP-RATER 2.0x OVERLAY SYSTEM, this is what you would do;

1. Check the top rater, 01 CANADOO. Horse-Racing-Tips.com market price for CANADOO is $2.80, The NSW TAB is offering $2.90 on the tote, this ratio is 2.9/2.8 or 1.04x. Since you are aiming for a 2.0x overlay or higher, you would either look elsewhere for a price of $5.80 or higher (ie 5.8/2.9 = 2.0x overlay), or skip this race entirely no matter how much hype is around for this horse. 

If you are following the TOP 1-4 2.0x OVERLAY SYSTEM, this is what you would do;

1. Check the first rater, 01 CANADOO. Horse-Racing-Tips.com market price for CANADOO is $2.80, The NSW TAB is offering $2.90 on the tote, this ratio is 2.9/2.8 or 1.04x. Since you are aiming for a 2.0x overlay or higher, miss this bet and move onto the next selection to check out the overlay ratio.

2. Check the second rater, 02 NOBLE DRAGON. Horse-Racing-Tips.com market price for NOBLE DRAGON is $6.30, The NSW TAB is offering $4.30 on the tote. This is a large underlay and a bet on this horse should be avoided under the current market. The underlay is 4.3/6.3 or 68%. 

3. Check the third rater, 04 KINSALE. Horse-Racing-Tips.com market price for KINSALE is $6.30, The NSW TAB is offering $12.80 on the tote. This is a good overlay. The overlay is 12.8/6.3 or 2.03x. This is also a DOUBLE or 2.0x overlay. We would recommend that you place you bet on this horse for the win. Remember, we post our odds at $6.30 so this horse statistically wins 1 in every 6.3 races, but if you consistently get odds of $12.8 or higher, you should win in the long run. We have proven this to be the case with our past data. 

4. You still need to check the last horse of the top 4. This is sometimes overlooked, but you must do this to follow our system. The fourth selection typically offers the best value as most punters also overlook this horse as they are interested in the short term gains. Although infrequently, you will see many of these come in at odds over $20. The fourth rater is 08 ZEMINDA. Horse-Racing-Tips.com market price for ZEMINDA is $9.20, The NSW TAB is offering $8.30 on the tote. Like selection 2, this is an underlay and not worthy of your money.

In summary, a TOP SELECTION DOUBLE OVERLAY follower would sit back and watch the race. A TOP 1-4 SELECTION DOUBLE OVERLAY follower would have a single bet on 04 KINSALE. The Double overlay approach and the Selection combinations can be adjusted to meet your budget and required strike rate. We post our performance at performance so check it out. 

RESULTS 
At the start of the race, 01 CANADOO came in on the tote to $1.80.  This was a good example of where a favourite becomes a poor value favourite, because we rated it at $2.80. This underlay is 1.8/2.8 or 64% - No thanks. Why was there so much money on it? 2KY Kim Stewart, the Late Mail and Sky channel (best bet) all tipped 01 CANADOO for the win. Because they do not publicise their probability or market price, the public was non-the-wiser on what the value should be, so continually plunged on it no matter what it was going to start at. We of course had other information at hand. For the record,  02 NOBLE DRAGON blew out in the betting to $7.00 to close at an overlay at 1.1x, but not enough for our betting campaign. Alas, the horse won the race. The hot favourite ran second, dare we write, ran like a $2.80 horse. And we wait to win another race. 

TABLE 1 - Horse-Racing-Tips.Com Market Prices and Tips.
CR07

QUIRINDI

Cls 4 (C6)

3:55 pm Quirindi Grain & Produce (C4)

1100 m

Good  

Final-Posting

Racenet Form

Sky Tips

2ky Tips

Live WP Odds

Live Quin Odds

HORSE-RACING-TIPS: (CR07) 01, 02, 04, 08 [07, 11].

No.

Horse

Form

Bp

Trainer Jockey

Wgt

WIN

PLACE

01

CANADOO

1x11

8

M K MASON G W WEATE

60.5

$ 2.80

$ 1.60

02

NOBLE DRAGON

558x

5

MS D LUMSDEN CODY MORGAN

56.5

$ 6.30

$ 2.80

03

BALLOON MAN

7591

1

M R PARKINSON ??

55.5

-

-

04

KINSALE

9311

2

P CLEAL J FLANAGAN

55.5

$ 6.30

$ 2.80

05

LAUREL STREAK

8363

10

S WILLIAMS ??

55.5

-

-

06

HAPPY FLIGHT

17x5

9

M L WALES MITCHELL BELL

55

-

-

07

STAR OF FROME

115x

6

T J BARTLEY DALE SPRIGGS

55

$ 13.10

$ 5.00

08

ZEMINDA

1311

4

J M QUINLAN A ROBINSON

55

$ 9.20

$ 3.70

09

BUSTER SLY

x606

11

G L ANDREWS ??

54

-

-

10

HOGMANAY

8637

3

B W FORD D FRAHM

54

-

-

11

JUST FAIR

8880

7

R J DAVIES MS V TEARLE

54

$ 13.10

$ 5.00

TABLE 2 - Corresponding NSW TAB Tote Prices.
Quirindi Race 7 (CR) Bet now on Quirindi (CR) 7 with NetTAB.
Quirindi Grain & Produce Class 4 Handicap 1100M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8        FINE / GOOD
TAB-Runs
Fri 05 Jul
3:55pm

Approximate Dividends at 10:55:00am. Scheduled start 5h0m

Refresh
Runner (Barrier) $ Win Place   Runner (Barrier) $ Win Place
1. Canadoo (8) 2.90 1.04   7. Star Of Frome (6) 26.40 7.40
2. Noble Dragon (5) 4.30 2.10   8. Zeminda (4) 8.30 2.60
3. Balloon Man (1) 10.40 4.10   9. Buster Sly (11) 14.00 4.90
4. Kinsale (2) 12.80 3.50   10. Hogmanay (3) 22.40 2.70
5. Laurel Streak (10) 9.90 3.50   11. Just Fair (7) 49.90 33.50
6. Happy Flight (9) 26.40 8.30  

 
Win Place Quinella Exacta Trifecta First 4 D Double
$263 $235 $3 $0 $22 $3 $184

 
Page Created 5 Jul 2002 at 10:55:05 AEST by TAB LIMITED © 2002
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